COVID-19 VACCINES Yellow CARD analysis

Data is a precious thing and will last longer than the systems themselves.

– Tim Berners-Lee

Introduction

Our analysis of the Medical & Healthcare products Regulation Agency (MHRA) Yellow Card Scheme for COVID-19 vaccines uses the publicly available reports that are released by the MHRA.  The MHRA has changed the format and frequency of reporting several times.

Due to the limitations of the data, we have deliberately held back from drawing conclusions based on the data we have.  Instead, we aim to provide insights into what we do know so that we, and you, can ask more meaningful questions of the MHRA, the government, vaccine manufacturers – and your own healthcare providers.

In January 2023, the MHRA revised the format of the Summary of Yellow Card reporting, to focus on the COVID-19 vaccines administered from the beginning of the Autumn 2022 booster campaign. Previous and known information on these vaccines will remain available as a record only and can be viewed here.

NOVEMBER 2023 UPDATE

A new report has been released which covers the period from 22 February to 25 October 2023 (8 months). This report no longer tells us the total number of vaccinations administered since the beginning of the rollout in Dec 2020. Therefore our vaccine related charts below use data to February 2023.

Of interest in the latest report is that since February 2023 there have been 425 new types of reaction (new ailments) reported including:

• 1922 Brain fog
• 90 Lactation insufficiency
• 63 Graves disease (a thyroid autoimmune disease)
• 34 Dilated cardio-myopathy (including 1 fatality)
• 5 Abnormal menstrual clots
• 3 Glioblastoma multiforme (fast growing brain tumour)
• 3 Lymphomatoid papulosis (a rare form of T-cell lymphoma characterised by crops of recurrent self-healing papules)

Also of note is that for several classes of fatality, the totals reported as at October are lower than those reported in the previous report. These reductions add up to 565, however it is not known whether the reductions are because of reclassification or clerical error. This is not the first time we have encountered this phenomenon and there has been no explanation provided by MHRA.

What We Do Know

• How many 1st, 2nd & 3rd/booster doses of each vaccine brand have been administered (up to Feb 2023 only)
• How many adverse reactions have been reported
• How many deaths have been reported
• How each reaction & death has been classified in fine detail
• Limited demographic information (added Nov 23)
• There have been more reactions & fatalities reported for COVID-19 vaccines than any other vaccine since the Yellow Card system started

What We Don’t Know

• Whether a death or reaction reported was caused by the vaccine or a coincidence
• Whether a death or reaction report relates to a 1st, 2nd or booster dose
• Time between dose and death or reaction
• Time between death or reaction & reporting
• Prior health status of the patient
• If a patient has had multiple reactions
• Patterns of combinations of reactions
• How many deaths & reactions haven’t been reported
• Whether vaccine mixing has taken place
• If changes in storage guidance for vaccines have impacted reactions
• Whether patients reporting adverse reactions had previously had or tested positive for COVID-19
• Up to date doses totals by brand of vaccine
• When the MHRA will release the next report

In early January 2023, MHRA reissued the data to 23/11/22 in a new format, claiming it was the same data, however we have compared the two datasets and found an additional 83,056 reactions and 2 deaths in the reissued reports. We have made the assumption that the reissued dataset is the more accurate and therefore all charts reflect these figures going forward.

Yellow Card Summary to 25th October 2023

Pfizer/ BioNTech	AstraZeneca	Moderna	Novavax	Unspecified	Totals
Rollout Start Date	08/12/20	04/01/21	07/04/21	03/02/22	n/a	n/a
First Doses Administered*	27.2 million	24.9 million	1.7 million	unknown	n/a	53.8 million
Second Doses Administered*	25.0 million	24.2 million	1.6 million	unknown	n/a	50.8 million
Boosters Administered*	44.6 million	0.1 million	22.6 million	1,000	n/a	67.3 million
Adverse Reactions	554,990	933,236	164,502	327	8,664	1,661,719
Deaths	946	1,417	144	0	88	2,595

New reactions this report = 20,362

* vaccine dose totals are to February 2023 only

New deaths this report = 136

Data Source: MHRA

* vaccine dose totals are to February 2023 only

Top 20 Adverse Reactions

PrintExcelCSVCopy

Condition	No of Reactions	No of Deaths
Headache	130,938	1
Fatigue	94,423	2
Pyrexia	92,140	1
Chills	64,217	0
Nausea	58,024	0
Pain in extremity	46,569	2
Myalgia	45,952	0
Dizziness	43,656	0
Arthralgia	41,488	0
Pain	33,199	0
Lymphadenopathy	22,896	0
Malaise	22,362	2
Rash	21,765	1
Vomiting	20,559	2
Dyspnoea	20,488	7
Pruritus	20,159	0
Diarrhoea	19,096	0
Paraesthesia	17,999	1
Chest pain	17,969	1
Palpitations	17,681	1

Top 20 Causes of Death

PrintExcelCSVCopy

Condition	No of Deaths
Death (no further information available)	651
Pulmonary embolism	178
Myocardial infarction	146
Cardiac arrest	118
Cerebrovascular accident	91
Cerebral haemorrhage	89
Sudden death	84
COVID-19	77
Thrombosis	62
Pneumonia	59
Cerebral venous sinus thrombosis	35
COVID-19 pneumonia	31
Myocardial ischaemia	31
Cardiac failure	34
Sepsis	29
Stillbirth	27
Acute myocardial infarction	22
Multiple organ dysfunction syndrome	24
Haemorrhage intracranial	23
Subarachnoid haemorrhage	18
Haemorrhagic stroke	18

REACTIONS & DEATHS BY TYPE (SOC)

PrintExcelCSVCopy

Type of Reaction (System Organ Class)	Reactions	Deaths
Blood disorders	30,236	37
Cardiac disorders	35,300	489
Congenital disorders	294	6
Ear disorders	21,833	1
Endocrine disorders	1,095	1
Eye disorders	27,183	0
Gastrointestinal disorders	148,497	41
General disorders	462,675	812
Hepatic disorders	1,009	14
Immune system disorders	7,411	8
Infections	41,083	263
Injuries	22,319	6
Investigations	22,001	6
Metabolic disorders	13,498	6
Muscle & tissue disorders	195,205	6
Neoplasms	1,202	50
Nervous system disorders	319,449	413
Pregnancy conditions	1,365	31
Product Issues	379	1
Psychiatric disorders	34,771	10
Renal & urinary disorders	5,190	17
Reproductive & breast disorders	61,969	1
Respiratory disorders	64,771	250
Skin disorders	113,307	4
Social circumstances	1,016	1
Surgical & medical procedures	2,776	2
Vascular disorders	25,864	119

Further Research & Resources

MHRA Resources

The MHRA now provides interactive charts to allow the public to explore the Yellow card data in more depth for themselves. Unfortunately the MHRA persists in siloing each vaccine variation (brand/type) into its own dataset so exploring consolidated data or comparing brands remains a challenge. Not all variations have the same reporting options available either.

Read More – COVID-19 VACCINES Yellow CARD analysis